「行商人の浅知恵と町商人の看板」 (Gyoushounin no Asadjie to Machi Shounin no Kanban)
“The Shallow Minds of the Traveling Merchant and the Town Merchant Sign”
As I said before, this section always brings a smile to my face. From the Kraft (and Holo) whiplash to the more economic side of things, there’s quite a bit of depth to it that makes for both interesting and foreboding material. After all, you know this isn’t the end of the road for Kraft and Holo, but how exactly will Kraft pull it off? That’s the right question to ask.
Of all the economic things in Spice and Wolf, the pyrite speculation I think is one of the best because it hints at a key part of our collective psyche that is always looking for an edge. We, as a species, are driven by profit because profit requires winning and winning requires a higher survival rate. In that sense, gambling on a commodity that has no real, lasting value is the height of that hubris because what goes up must always come down. One need look no further than the Great Dutch Tulip Bubble or more recently the GameStop squeeze to get an idea of how this works, and this episode also teases a lot about the average person spending time and money on pyrite whose only value to them will be sold for a higher price later. Everyone hopes to get ahead, but someone will always have to carry the load and those who try to time the market are the ones whose fate will be ruined by it—especially at a time when your grandmother is considering making a move.
Part of Kraft’s strategy is certainly working because he understands the shifting sands so well. Since profit is key and most trading is based on intuition (no matter what your margin trader tells you), a few well-chosen words and the right kind of action can cause a panic that turns gold into lead. So Kraft’s idea is to spread a rumor or two and let human emotions do the rest. Amati is also dependent on this flow, which is why Kraft is also betting on selling pyrite credits on futures. Just as Kraft is dependent on a crash, Amati needs a spike, so his accumulation of gold will cover the initial bet. Market crash? Amati has lost a lot of capital tied up in his pyrite investments and will not be able to claim Holo for himself. Note that Kraft could also lose if the market stays insolvent longer than the bet lasts (and never bet on when the market will stop being irrational), but hey, that's half the thrill here! Whether the young upstart or the grizzled veteran prevails depends on who can metaphorically work the crowd.
And that’s not counting Holo and her continued role in all the festivities, of course. I suspect few could have imagined she’d completely turned her back on Kraft last week, and rightly so, despite her usual sly, devious nature. After all, that marriage certificate wasn’t a clean break, but a test: does Kraft really care about Holo? Does he want to stay with her? Then he’ll do everything in his power to make sure that certificate is invalid. The proof is the second letter detailing Amati’s assets, because of course Holo isn’t one to be picky when it comes to helping someone she really wants to be with. While it’s a bit of a cruel and unusual setup, Kraft has to take some responsibility, because if he’d just talked to the girl and been open about his feelings, a lot of the misunderstandings would have been avoided. Holo understands that too and it's her own fault that led to her actions here, however, like every other aspect of their relationship, it's a flaw that takes time and heart to heart before it's fully overcome.
Looking ahead to the big showdown However, as Amati approaches, I don't think we'll have to wait long to find out how these two companions get through their latest troubles.
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